Source: Chatham House –
Greenland, Venezuela, Iran – Chatham House analyses of how US power is reshaping the new world order
News release
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All in one place – region by region and sector by sector – here is a collection of Chatham House expert commentary from our analysts who assess the global ramifications of the new expansionist US foreign policy, politically, economically and legally.
International Law
The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro – and attacks on Venezuela – have no justification in international law – Professor Marc Weller ‘This may be the moment when Western Europe realizes that the US has abandoned the core values that united them for the past century,’ writes the head of Chatham House’s International Law Programme.
Who owns Greenland? – Professor Marc Weller ‘Denmark’s claim is unimpeachable.’
Greenland and Europe
US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future. But European countries are not helpless – By Dr Marion Messmer ‘US threats to annex Greenland following the attack on Venezuela should be taken seriously. European countries have important leverage they should be prepared to use.’
Video: Could the US and Europe fight over Greenland? By Grégoire Roos
Video: What can NATO in Europe do if US threatens Greenland? – Dr Marion Messmer
Ukraine
This will be used as a pretext for Russian President Vladimir Putin to double down on his aggression in Ukraine – Orysia Lutsevych (third article in the collection) ‘With time, US investments unlocking Venezuela’s oil could be a positive for Ukraine, weakening the Russian war budget with lower oil prices.’
Venezuela
President Trump is going to own whatever happens next in Venezuela – Christopher Sabatini ‘The US’s military action will likely require sustained US engagement of some sort. Will the Trump White House have the stomach for that?’
Video: Who is in charge in Venezuela now? – Christopher Sabatini
Economics
(Archive, Feb 2025) The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine – By David Lubin ‘President Trump’s actions seem to indicate a hemispheric US foreign policy emerging. There is a bleak logic behind that approach.
Oil
US control of Venezuela’s oil may not be the bonanza that Trump expects – Chris Aylett ‘Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.’
Domestic US Politics
Donald Trump’s poll numbers suggest his popularity is waning – Bruce Stokes ‘As the Trump administration enters its crucial second year, polls indicate that much of the American public disapproves of the president and his flagship policies, although views are split along partisan lines.’
Trump ran against these decades-long ‘forever wars’ – Laurel Rapp ‘When US governance of Venezuela turns out to be longer, tricker, and costlier than the Administration is currently anticipating, they won’t just have a Venezuela problem on their hands. They’ll have a MAGA one too.’
Geopolitics
Trump’s Venezuela attack should serve as a warning even to US allies – Heather Hurlburt ‘A muted response to events in Venezuela shows allies still want to avoid confrontation with Washington. But that approach cannot last if the president seeks to force them into alignment with MAGA policy and cultural politics.’
Does Venezuela usher in an era of might is right? – Independent Thinking Podcast
The consequences will take time to play out – Bronwen Maddox, Director of Chatham House (fourth article) ‘President Trump’s action in Venezuela presents his allies with a moral and tactical quandary and his opponents with an opportunity – but also a threat.’
Panel discussion: The new threat? An imperial America ‘What President Trump’s foreign policy means for Europe, Russia and China. Watch this 16 February Chatham House panel discussion here.
Ten conflicts to watch in 2026 -Interview with International Crisis Group President Comfort Ero. ‘The most dangerous wars and crises through the lens of International Crisis Group’s flagship annual report Ten Conflicts to Watch. Watch the discussion here on 15 January.’
(Archive, March 2025) Competing visions of international order responses to US power in a fracturing world (Multi-author report) ‘After decades of strong support but growing ambivalence, the United States is turning against the liberal international order that it once forged. Where does this changed stance leave the rest of the world?’
Iran
Would Trump’s threatened strikes help Iran’s protestors or boost the regime? – Bilal Y. Saab ‘Trump’s threats should be taken seriously, but Iran is not Venezuela – it’s a nation of 90 million people with a resilient regime that can still wreak havoc both at home and abroad. Decapitating the Maduro regime is one thing. Decapitating the theocracy in Tehran is another. ‘
China
Panel discussion: What is China’s vision for a new world order? ‘As America retreats from its dominant role on the global stage changes, experts debate Beijing’s international ambitions and how it aims to remake the world order.’ Watch the 22 January event here.
This collection of Chatham House analysis, commentary, events and reports will be updated regularly.
Chatham House is an international affairs think-tank based in London. Its mission is to address geopolitical challenges and international problems. Through this, we aim to help governments and societies to build a secure, sustainable, prosperous and just world. Read about our mission and values here.